Soil Fever, Temporary Freeze Soil Fever, Short-Term Repeat Cycle That Was The Scenario Of The Real Estate Market In The Period Of 2020 And Early 2021.
By the second half of 2021, when the epidemic continues to spread, will the real estate market be able to return to land fever or freeze?
A recent report of the Ministry of Construction has shown that the supply and demand trading index on the market in the second quarter is quite positive.
This is also the time when the epidemic shows signs of spreading. Specific:
In the second quarter of 2021, the total transaction volume was 29,949 transactions An increase of 18% compared to the first quarter of 2021 There were 29,557 eligible residential homes for sale while the supply of tourism, resort and other real estate decreased.
Another positive indicator that the report of the Ministry of Construction gives is the better absorptive capacity of the market in the second quarter of 2021.
In particular, in the quarter, there was no new inventory of real estate from the primary market.
With these indicators, the report of the Ministry of Construction noted, in the first 6 months of the year, despite many difficulties caused by the epidemic, with the drastic and effective direction of the Government, the Prime Minister, The real estate market is still basically stable, not falling into a state of “freezing” or “hot fever”.
The phenomenon of local land price increases in localities has been promptly controlled.
Real estate business and real estate brokerage activities that lack legality and cause market disturbances have been promptly rectified.
Closing the scenario of the real estate market in the first 6 months of the year, although there are still many difficulties, according to the Ministry of Construction, there are still positive developments.
However, looking at the scenario of the real estate market in the last months of the year, optimism is no longer recorded in the forecast of many experts.
According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, Economic Expert:
The real estate market will remain gloomy because the epidemic has not shown any signs of being controlled.
If the epidemic continues, real estate businesses will reduce their resources, and many investors using financial leverage will find it difficult to resist.
As a result, they can’t pay the interest on the bank loan and it may be bad debt.
A bad scenario will repeat like the period 2011-2013 when the bank fell into a situation of “sink” in bad debts.
Meanwhile, Dr. Dinh The Hien also did not hesitate to predict:
The real estate market will not bubble, but will fall into a frozen state.
The market will face difficulties like 2013.
Previously, this expert also said that the real estate market in 2021 will be “not smooth” from an overall perspective.
This forecast was made when Vietnam has not yet faced difficulties with the Covid-19 epidemic like the current situation or the state of implementing social distancing in Ho Chi Minh City has lasted through September.
On the other hand, with the collection of factual information, he realized that the data on the situation and prospects for renting townhouses and apartments in Ho Chi Minh City are still facing difficulties.
This will reduce the debt repayment source of investors who own townhouses, apartments for rent, etc.
A Personal Survey that Mr. Hien shared:
That is with the group of people with above-average living standards, with stable jobs and incomes.
Survey information shows that their income has been reduced.
Household expenses skyrocketed and the reserve money began to be used up.
They are starting to have a hard time repaying their bank loans for home purchases because of falling incomes and difficult rentals.
Most importantly, their psychology begins to fear the front.
That is the reason that Mr. Hien predicts the possibility of a wave of real estate price drops due to the strong selling force to pay debts.
Debt collection on time, with the right number of the bank can create an insecurity about repayment.
And if investors do not dare to embrace investment real estate but have to sell it to pay for debt, then the market will have many houses for sale.
This makes people who are preparing to buy will wait for more discounts.
Accordingly, the 2013 scenario will not only make real estate holders suffer due to buying a lot from loans or have income decline, but it will also affect banks.
The bank side appeared “blood clot” for the second time and made the bank itself tired because of the customer’s loan.
From a More Optimistic Angle, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh Again Believes That Land Fever Will Be Able To Return:
The market will certainly have land fever, just when and why land fever will be.
Because the market always moves with cash flow, when the macro economy is stable, investors expect long-term investment, then the land plot will establish a new price level.
Of course, the land fever cannot appear quickly this year.
Maybe, in 2022 when the epidemic is under control, the cash flow will return to the real estate market, there may be new waves.”
